20 ways driverless cars will change EVERYTHING
I’ve been talking for some time about how driverless cars are going to change EVERYTHING. It’s a funny concept when you first hear it. The typical reaction is, “Yeah, so I get that we won’t have to drive ourselves around anymore…it’ll be like taking the bus. How is that going to change anything else?”
Oh, its going to change everything!
I saw an article on Medium recently called, 73 Mind-Blowing Implications of Driverless Cars and Trucks, and I thought I’d share some of his examples and mix in a few of my own to show you what I mean.
20 things about our lives that driverless cars will change forever
#1 – Driver’s licenses will slowly go away (no need for them when no one drives.) We’ll move quickly to finger print recognition or retina scans for ID validation.
#2 – Parking lots/decks will disappear. We don’t need them when your a car drops you off and then just heads to pick up the next person, or heads out of town to alleviate congestion. This will result in so many great things, including far more green space and more pedestrian bike and walking paths.
#3 – Crime will drop dramatically. Every car will be equipped with cameras, and there will be no get-away cars. You want to steal TVs and jewelry from a house? How are you going to get away in a car that, as soon as the police system is alerted, knows you’re the bad guy? And simply locks you in and drives you to the police department? :)
#4 – Bye-bye gas stations. All cars will be electric and will swap out batteries to keep going indefinitely.
#5 – Our police force will change dramatically as there will be no more need for traffic tickets or accident reports.
#6 – Insurance companies will either need to evolve or die. Auto insurance will disappear.
#7 – Local mechanics, car dealers, consumer car washes, and auto parts stores will no longer need to exist.
#8 – Traffic lights will be removed, as there is no need for them when cars are linked and can communicate with each other and through the grid. Cars will be able to go 100+ mph with ease.
#9 – Overnight hotels will take a huge hit. When a car can simply drive me overnight, comfortably, I no longer need to find a place to crash on long trips.
#10 – And cars WILL be comfortable! When you don’t need to actually drive a car, the way a car looks and functions can completely change. You will be able to request a car that is made for resting/sleeping, or one that is made for getting work done.
#11 – The car financing industry will go away, because no one will own a car. Just like buses, trains, and planes, the idea that we all owned our own cars will one day sound ridiculous.
#12 – Delivery of products will become incredibly efficient, as cars will be able to deliver products, at high speeds, day and night.
#13 – Short-hop domestic air travel will be largely displaced by multi-modal travel in autonomous vehicles.
#14 – Cities will become more dense as fewer roads and vehicles will be needed and transport will be cheaper and more available.
#15 – Being late for something due to travel will just about be a thing of the past. We’ll know when we need to leave and when we’ll get there.
#16 – Deaths from traffic accidents and drunk driving will largely be a thing of the past. This will effect so many industries, including medical and legal.
#17 – Ambulances and fire trucks will get to people much more quickly, saving lives with greater success.
#18 – Innovative app-like marketplaces will open up for in-transit purchases. Yes, in-transit purchases! Imagine your food being delivered by drone to your car as you’re riding.
#19 – Home design will change dramatically as there is no longer a need for garages or driveways. And potentially storage of seasonal or non-essential items in your house could be picked up and stored off-site easily, allowing for smaller footprint homes.
#20 – Mobility for seniors and people with disabilities will be greatly improved.
Agree or disagree? And what did I miss?
~ photo by @neitmrh15
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1a59ae640e32d65c4e66d95db11bb335ba8a3c24dcbabaaefbfe9b45c3a19eb0.png
Good post, Jeff. After test driving a Model X and it almost killing me plus two other passengers. I’ve had some time to think about autonomous and semi-autonomous vehicles. In my case, the car had two issues stemming from the same problem: lack of road markers to guide itself. In the first instance of the autonomous test drive, the car simply veered off the road because there were no reference points…just concrete and asphalt…no lines. I had very little time to react and saves us from doom just in time. The second instance was a little better but just as scary. The car again didn’t have reference points and just started following the only reference point it had…the car in front. So now we were stuck going to wherever the driver in front of us. After all of that, Tesla promised that within two years they will flip on the “autonomous mode” and you will no longer have to check in with the car every ~90 seconds to let it know that you’re “still in charge”.
So I start my feedback (per CTA above) with the following video.
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WbW2UgmjJUA&w=560&h=315%5D
Ok let’s take this point by point. It’s my belief that full autonomy will never happen, at least not until we transcend the “car” and “road” medium and go to something like hyperloop or drone pods.
#1 – Driver’s licenses will slowly go away (no need for them when no one drives.) We’ll move quickly to finger print recognition or retina scans for ID validation.
VG: I think these are two separate issues. 1) identification, and 2) a card that identifies you as a “licensed driver”. I believe there will always be driver’s licenses so long as there are cars. It would be irresponsible for a car owner to “just be a passenger.” There will be situations (e.g. autonomous grid failure, vehicle failure beyond programming, WNIC failure, etc.) where driver must taker over. There are driving conditions that a computer, no matter how smart, cannot account for (18 wheeler gas cistern starts leaking gas and catches on fire, avalanche, insect swarms, tornadoes, etc.). Let’s say some crazy unleashes bullets onto oncoming traffic. What happens then? I’m not trying to be cynical, just realistic in scenarios where a human brain (conditioned over a lifetime) must take over and account for many variable that a computer cannot. Open the pod bay doors, @jeffhilimire:disqus ;)
#2 – Parking lots/decks will disappear. We don’t need them when your a car drops you off and then just heads to pick up the next person, or heads out of town to alleviate congestion. This will result in so many great things, including far more green space and more pedestrian bike and walking paths.
VG: I dream of this. I also dream of self-driving cars and often wonder: do self-driving cars dream of automaton humans?
#3 – Crime will drop dramatically. Every car will be equipped with cameras, and there will be no get-away cars. You want to steal TVs and jewelry from a house? How are you going to get away in a car that, as soon as the police system is alerted, knows you’re the bad guy? And simply locks you in and drives you to the police department? :)
VG: There will always be utility vehicles that will NOT be autonomously operated. Concrete mixers. Armored security vehicles. Hazardous materials transports. Police, EMT, Fire, Military, etc. Crime and theft will always thrive. Criminals are the most creative folks on Earth. If we could somehow make thieves believe that creating a “cure for cancer” would be the greatest heist of all time…they’d have it solved in an hour.
#4 – Bye-bye gas stations. All cars will be electric and will swap out batteries to keep going indefinitely.
VG: Gas stations maybe. You’re assuming that one day a 200 mpg engine with a thousand mile range is not possible. Regardless of petrol, utility stations, whether for water, petrol, plutonium, electricity, repair, will be needed. And most important, convenient stores! There’s always money in the banana stand.
#5 – Our police force will change dramatically as there will be no more need for traffic tickets or accident reports.
VG: How about people getting hit by autonomous vehicles? What about not taking care of your autonomous vehicle properly (tire pressure or tread depth) resulting in autonomous programming not being able to compensate and causing accidents.
#6 – Insurance companies will either need to evolve or die. Auto insurance will disappear.
VG: Insurance will never die. Unless risk dies. Example: someone has a heart attack because the vehicle took a sharper turn than necessary and scared the passenger shitless. Or insurance policy protecting passengers from manufacturer negligence or programming error. Or someone’s dog runs into the path of an autonomous vehicle which kills it and now the owner is traumatized. Or lighting bolt strikes car, fries electronics, and your car drives into Fry’s Electronics store and plows through the cash registers.
#7 – Local mechanics, car dealers, consumer car washes, and auto parts stores will no longer need to exist.
VG: I don’t want to drive in a dirty anything. I’m confused how cars will be serviced? Anything that moves, has moving parts and therefor needs to be serviced. Ownership…yes I think it may not make sense to own a vehicle at some point. But you cannot outlaw a car nut like myself from burning dynosaurs in my V8. You can tax me to death…in theory.
#8 – Traffic lights will be removed, as there is no need for them when cars are linked and can communicate with each other and through the grid. Cars will be able to go 100+ mph with ease.
VG: Utopia. 100+ mph would require massive infrastructure changes. This speed is only possible in rural areas where there are no bottle necks.
#9 – Overnight hotels will take a huge hit. When a car can simply drive me overnight, comfortably, I no longer need to find a place to crash on long trips.
VG: I like showers and restrooms and ability NOT to move in space/time simultaneously. Overnight hotels are also charming. And I hear lots of business is conducted in overnight hotels. They will not die.
#10 – And cars WILL be comfortable! When you don’t need to actually drive a car, the way a car looks and functions can completely change. You will be able to request a car that is made for resting/sleeping, or one that is made for getting work done.
VG: Humans are not made to sit. In fact, sitting shortens your life. You’re talking about buses then. At what point will living/working out of an autonomous mobile home make most sense?
#11 – The car financing industry will go away, because no one will own a car. Just like buses, trains, and planes, the idea that we all owned our own cars will one day sound ridiculous.
VG: Someone will have to own fleets. So, auto financing will exist, just not in the way it does today.
#12 – Delivery of products will become incredibly efficient, as cars will be able to deliver products, at high speeds, day and night.
VG: Yes!
#13 – Short-hop domestic air travel will be largely displaced by multi-modal travel in autonomous vehicles.
VG: Yes!
#14 – Cities will become more dense as fewer roads and vehicles will be needed and transport will be cheaper and more available.
VG: Can you please elaborate. I don’t understand what you mean by this.
#15 – Being late for something due to travel will just about be a thing of the past. We’ll know when we need to leave and when we’ll get there.
VG: Not for me. I will find a way to miss my buggy.
#16 – Deaths from traffic accidents and drunk driving will largely be a thing of the past. This will effect so many industries, including medical and legal.
VG: I really hope so. Drunk and distracted driving is unnecessary.
#17 – Ambulances and fire trucks will get to people much more quickly, saving lives with greater success.
VG: Yes, parting the seas will no longer be an issue.
#18 – Innovative app-like marketplaces will open up for in-transit purchases. Yes, in-transit purchases! Imagine your food being delivered by drone to your car as you’re riding.
VG: I much prefer matter synthesizers. Much more efficient ;)
[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyMYKWIAR5s&w=560&h=315%5D
#19 – Home design will change dramatically as there is no longer a need for garages or driveways. And potentially storage of seasonal or non-essential items in your house could be picked up and stored off-site easily, allowing for smaller footprint homes.
VG: I think the wealthy and/or gear nuts will still have vehicles. How about motorcycles? Which is a leisurely activity that no biker (I don’t of any) will give up to autonomy…
#20 – Mobility for seniors and people with disabilities will be greatly improved.
VG: And kids!
Woah, thanks for all this ;) Few things you asked for more feedback on:
You wrote: “Let’s say some crazy unleashes bullets onto oncoming traffic. What happens then? I’m not trying to be cynical, just realistic in scenarios where a human brain (conditioned over a lifetime) must take over and account for many variable that a computer cannot.”
In almost all “driving” circumstances I believe its better for a computer to make decisions than an actual human. So, would I rather have cars saving lives every day to risk the once in a lifetime situation where someone starts firing a gun at oncoming traffic, only to have cars just keep driving past that dude until someone takes care of him? Sadly, yes. I think we have to look at the big picture here, and the math will work out. But that was a good mental exercise, I hadn’t thought of that one ;)
“Crime will always exist”
True, of course, but it will be more cyber crime. You have to believe that when cars are controlled by computers and they have cameras all over them, that violent crime will drop by a great deal. It will still exist, but I have to believe it will go down.
“Cities will become more dense as fewer roads and vehicles will be needed and transport will be cheaper and more available.”
This was actually from the article I referenced but I believe it. When cars can route themselves around and we don’t need parking spots everywhere, and we literally have way fewer cars on the road (as they’re optimized and not sitting idle), we can have less roads and more greenspace in cities.
You wrote: “How about people getting hit by autonomous vehicles? What about not taking care of your autonomous vehicle properly (tire pressure or tread depth) resulting in autonomous programming not being able to compensate and causing accidents.”
I don’t think, in this future I’m painting which might be 20 years out, that people will own cars. So maintaining them won’t be a person’s responsibility. And again, getting hit by an autonomous car will happen, but it will happen 1/100,000th of the time that it does from a person driving a car and hitting someone.
You wrote: “Humans are not made to sit. In fact, sitting shortens your life. You’re talking about buses then. At what point will living/working out of an autonomous mobile home make most sense?”
Genius!
You wrote: “But you cannot outlaw a car nut like myself from burning dynosaurs in my V8. You can tax me to death…in theory.”
Oh yes, you can be denied the right to drive a car one day on the roads. That’s where I think this will end up. You can drive on dirt tracks or specific places where they have roads/tracks for “human” driving, and eventually that will go away.
You wrote: “Insurance will never die. Unless risk dies. Example: someone has a heart attack because the vehicle took a sharper turn than necessary and scared the passenger shitless. Or insurance policy protecting passengers from manufacturer negligence or programming error. Or someone’s dog runs into the path of an autonomous vehicle which kills it and now the owner is traumatized. Or lighting bolt strikes car, fries electronics, and your car drives into Fry’s Electronics store and plows through the cash registers.”
Yes, but me having to have auto insurance will surely go away, that’s what I’m referring to. Insurance will never go away, totally agree with that point.
Thanks for responding, @jeffhilimire:disqus.
If we’re talking about a time-frame of 20 years…I feel like autonomous vehicles are the google plus of the scenario (e.g. autonomous vehicles will co-exist by more dominant and efficient/cheaper means of transport). I guess we’ll just have to wait.
One possibility to nuts and the wealthy…one “could” purchase road time (like a Peach pass situation) to clear the road and divert traffic elsewhere.
As far as city density, I would love to see new neighborhoods built in such as way that promotes walking or riding bikes to your destination. In a very dense city, variety of housing, retail options, and diversity of people could be enough to keep you engaged and productive in a micro-community.
Autonomous or not, the future is bright! And roads…we don’t need roads where we’re going…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=flge_rw6RG0