I think Jeff makes an interesting point about network effects devaluing mayor-ship, but I do agree with you that richer experiences are on the horizon which will reduce the app-juggling and will bring new value to checking-in. Innovation will come on the heels of acquisition and consolidation that will help both the consumer and marketer; after all, how many check-in applications can you keep up with? We see the same problem with group-buying and other novelty business models.

As we begin to consume the *new* multi-dimensional, geo-social layers to help us make sense of the data, being a “mayor”, earning “badges”, and to some extent getting “discounts” (this is a social tool not a discount network isn’t it?) will become an afterthought. Just like the Google model, more data will bring more meaning to “what” people are doing. In this case network-effects will be of benefit. The question then becomes, who will be offsetting the cost? Will check-ins be ad-driven or perhaps mobos will be doing the acquiring (considering how much bandwidth is drawn from the increasingly demanding LBS apps) and charging for the services on our monthly bills?

Let’s not forget NFC either. Not only will we say goodbuy to QR codes, et. al. but similarly we’ll decrease and/or eliminate (if you just let your phone accept check-ins automatically) check-in friction in LBS apps increasing penetration and increasing the size of the network.

Whatever the case, let’s remember to keep our smartphones at least 5/8 of an inch away from our heads so we can enjoy this lively discussion well into the future. 

We also need to put together an LBS meetup to hear from FourSquare and the like.

-my two cents

1) Totally agree that checking in is simply a facilitator or action to get to a richer experience. The key here is to keep in mind that it isn’t important that you are at a location or participating in an activity, but that you chose to share that fact.  Foursquare has tried to position themselves as a recommendation engine with the new Explore functionality and the Gowalla CEO recently stated that his company is not a check-in app, but is designed to help you “craft the narrative of your life”.  All of these companies know that the novelty around the check-in commodity is over and they must adapt to providing an enriched experience for users.  I’ve noticed over the last several months that I rarely see people still using check-in aggregators.  I think this is due to the native apps themselves continuing to grow beyond the act of checking in and people longing for a better purpose to their social sharing.

2) A year ago there was still a major disconnect in check-in apps between the “where” and the “what” which resulted in having to utilize many apps to round out the experience of certain activities.  A lot of progress has been made since then in bridging that gap.  For your concert example, I could check-in to the particular band using GetGlue and attach my location using their Foursquare API integration at the same time (which I could then auto-share to Facebook and Twitter).  This would instantly settle the “I’m here and doing this” problem across multiple platforms.  If the concert or sporting event had a single venue within GetGlue then a lot of commenting and discussion could still occur within that one app.  Finding a universal solution is a pretty tall order and for most events a richer content sharing experience is needed so additional apps that are tailored for a specific function will be used.  If you think about it, the company most poised to do that today would be Facebook as they pretty much have all of the individual components there already (events, check-ins, photo/video sharing, chat, etc) and only would need to connect them into a seamless process.

3) I would argue that Foursquare actually does become more relevant as the number of your connections with other users expands, but will admit there is probably a limit at some point.  The tip function surfaces content to me from friends first so building a network of people that frequent the same establisments and have similar interests is more useful than a few friends that don’t cross paths with me.  The new explore functionality helps me identify new locations through the lens of my friends’ check-in history.  If several of my friends have visited a place then that recommendation engine could suggest that venue to me.  A key problem here in the current version of Foursquare is the lack of sentiment analysis which could easily be resolved by adding a simple “would you recommend this place to a friend” yes or no quesiton within the app after checking in. 

Your “So Now What” points:

* Checking-in to a location will morph to checking-in to an activity. – You were spot on here. The concept has moved on to entertainment, drinking beer, etc.  Again, this is helping to put the what I’m doing at a location context into the lifecast.

* Applications will become more useful to the end user – A recent survey showed that about half of all people who use LBS do so in order to receive discounts or tangible rewards.  This trend will continue and while digital merit badges/gamification is important, it eventually all boils down to what am I getting out of it.  For some just the meeting new people or finding new places aspect is enough, but others need that monetary reward.  The app that incorporates all of these mechanics will be more successful than ones that carve out a niche focusing on one area only. 

* Some players will be snatched up and become a feature of a larger business – Definitely will and has started happening.  Case in point the Whrrl purchase by Groupon.  Currently, there are rumors about a Groupon component being integrated into Foursquare. Funny the Yahoo mention…in retrospect a 100 million purchase would have been a good buy.

* Checking-in will be embedded (as a feature) in brand applications – Totally agree with you here.  The movement of Foursquare from an app to a platform has been extremely hot over the last year and does a lot to help drive adoption as other companies become your advocates.  While the open API is critical to their success (much as I believe it was for Twitter), the Foursquare team will need to continue to innovate in order to keep the public interested in using the experience they create for them rather than having someone let Foursquare complete the check-in while I’m a captive audience in another brand’s app.  Tons of stuff I could talk about with regard to individual branded apps integrating a variety of existing technology to not only impact in store experiences, but help use that info to drive CRM strategy as well.  I’ve written enough so we can save that for another discussion. :-)

High five
-chad

My team has been focused on location-based media for roughly 6 years straight: WellcomeMat began as a video platform for locally-focused professionals and brands to demonstrate their uniqueness on the web via online video. We gained a ton of momentum in the real estate vertical, and decided to focus “The Mat” on just that. Doing so, however, left a hole in our hearts because we are primarily concerned with the future of local business owners in the US – you know…the characters and people that make each city unique…

This is all a very long winded way of me bringing up Pegshot, which is our mobile video and photo platform used to quickly publish what's happening where you are with friends and family. We believe that being able to broadcast videos and photos to services like Twitter, Facebook, Flickr, Posterous and Tumblr and doing so with your approximate or exact location (venues, events, parks, schools etc) IS valuable enough to justify using our app. It is a utility, not a “network,” used to tell your friends where you are and share with them what's happening there.

Apologies to pitch within the comments: there are rare instances where I find myself doing this, usually when people are talking my game (which I thank all of you for). Be good and BUY LOCAL!!

I think there are going to have to be big incentives attached to geo-location apps in order for me to get into them. Just checking in somewhere to checkin and possibly get a badge doesn't do anything for me.

I don't think anyone will ever “own” the geo-location space, but I'm guessing the “winner” will have some hook into photography. I say that only because most smartphones already append GPS data as a part of the EXIF data in the photos they take.

So maybe someone like Yahoo's Flickr could make a big play or Google via some kind of new Maps/Yelp mash-up.

The winner is the data/API married to a new experience via passive awareness.

Also, this link is for Thomas: http://www.chorewars.com/

Cross promotions from digital to real world businesses, whether it be a coupon, a game or something new, should enhance these platforms and make them meaningful to larger user bases.

Plus I'm almost to $10 with them…cash money yo.