Are Hulu’s days numbered?

by jeffhilimire on January 7, 2010

Most everyone I know that’s, hm, let’s just say “computer savvy” (sorry Mom) seems to love Hulu.  As an example, I was chatting recently with @churchchat and he was saying that he watches more “TV” on Hulu than on his “TV” at home.  And with the recent release of the Boxee Box at CES, you can see this becoming more of a common occurrence going forward.

This chart by Silicon Alley Insider shows the level of engagement and usage of Hulu users.

The interesting thing about this is that the data also shows that the number of unique viewers hasn’t really increased much over the same period of time.

A quick look at Compete.com to compare the unique visitors to YouTube and Hulu shows that there are about 85 million uniques a month for YouTube and 8.6 million uniques a month for Hulu.  I’m willing to bet, though I don’t have the data, that the level of engagement on Hulu far exceeds that of YouTube.  But it does make me wonder, if YouTube were to use the base they have now (10 times that of Hulu) and restructure their service to have more of a TV portal similar to Hulu, how long would Hulu survive?

I’m rooting for the little guy but betting against Google isn’t the best way to make a living ;)

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Tagged as: boxee box, compete, hulu, youtube

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  • sherryheyl

    There is more to this than just Hulu vs YouTube. Right now there are many people trying to develop different or copycat business models to serve our viewing needs.

    This article that was in TechCrunch this morning http://www.techcrunch.com/2010/01/06/bit-ly-mar… Shows how bit.ly lost a significant marketshare to the “other” category” – the many little players taking little bites.

    I think cable and network television's days are numbered, but it seems they are in complete denial of that.

  • http://merchantstand.com Bob Williams

    I'm not sure why YouTube would get away from its core competency of delivering user generated content to become a syndication and rebroadcast engine. Hulu and like services are building a powerful alternative or really next generation capability for network broadcasts from cable and satellite. Hulu is also starting to expand its reach to different generations. Just a few weeks ago,while having dinner with friends, I heard the two 13 year olds at the table discussing how “cool” Hulu was. I'm with you Jeff and rooting for the little guy.

  • joekoufman

    Being that Hulu is a joint venture of NBC Universal (GE), Fox Entertainment Group (News Corp) and ABC Inc. (The Walt Disney Company), with funding by Providence Equity Partners, which made a $100 million equity investment and holds a 10% stake, it is hard to consider Hulu the “little guy”. I could see how YouTube could increase their quality and focus on professional vs. amateur content, but still Hulu has some serious backing…

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    I have to imagine that since YouTube is having a hard time monetizing user-generated content, they are probably looking at all of the advertising dollars going to Hulu and thinking that might be a way to juice the numbers. At least that's what I'd be doing if I were them.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Having that backing is definitely a good thing for Hulu, but no matter how much backing you have, when one site is a) owned by Google who owns the Internet, unlike NBC, Fox and ABC who haven't come close to figuring out how to use the Internet effectively, and b) has more users to the tune of 10x…well, you tell me who the little guy is.

    I'll take 10x the number of users to having good partners and backing any day.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    You make a great point Sherry and I agree, I think cable and network TV are hanging on for dear life, much the same newspapers and magazines are today.

  • http://twitter.com/cubanx Ricardo Diaz

    I don't think Hulu's days are numbered. Given that they're backed by those guys, the big thing they have that Google doesn't is the content.

    If ABC/NBC/Fox would WAKE UP and look at what happened with MP3's, they'd know how to monetize it and stop people from torrenting their shows.

    If they offered :
    1) 1080p versions of ALL their shows, either commercial free, or with like 15 seconds spots in 2 places (so that by the time you even think about hitting the fast forward button, the commercial is practically over),
    2) Offered it at a good price

    People would come. 2009 was the first year that saw a decline in illegal downloads. The reason for that is, why deal with the hassle of finding a good source, the possible, however remote, chance of being sued, etc., when you can buy songs for 79 cents?

    People love convenience, look at how folks pay $2.99 for a ringtone (10 second clip) of their favorite song, even though they downloaded the entire song for .99 cents the day before :)

  • Eileen_Lichtenfeld

    Given the rate of technological innovations, I think it's safe to say that all existing media's days are numbered including Hulu and YouTube. The next new platform can't be that far away with the nano technology currently under way.

  • jason32

    If it were not for hulu.com I would not watch TV at all. I guess some people were smart enough to bring there advertisers my way. I mostly game via the internet and you need a computer to do that. Hence if it is not on the web I have not seen it (look at dr. horibles musical blog, anyone ever see that on tv?)

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Dude, Dr. Horrible is AWESOME. And you're right, today the only way to see that or things like “I'm on a boat” is via the Internet. Although the TV's coming out with wifi are looking to change that. But I feel you on this point. And I'm a big Hulu fan, just not sure if they're going to make it. Might be ahead of their time.

    Two things to consider. First, check out Hulu's traffic recently: http://siteanalytics.compete.com/hulu.com/. Pretty big drop off over the last 4 months. Not a good sign.

    Second, check out this post where I talk about a debate that Mark Cuban had with the founder of Boxee. They are debating the future of TV, whether its Internet-based or Cable/Satellite driven. Love your thoughts on that. http://jeffhilimire.com/2010/03/sxsw-2010-day-1/

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