3 trends that will shape the digital world over the next decade

by jeffhilimire on August 19, 2009

I love the LinkedIn Groups.  I think LinkedIn has a good shot at cornering the “business social networking” space.  They’ve been doing some cool things over there and I think they’re on a great path.  If you’re not on LinkedIn, get on it.  If you are, connect with me.

In the TRENDYLAB – MARKETING, TRENDS, INNOVATION & CONSUMER INSIGHTS GROUP (yes, its a mouthful but good people and conversations), this discussion was posed by Greg Satell: 3 trends that will Shape the Digital World over the Next Decade.  He answers it here. My answer was the following:

1) US telecom restrictions loosening to allow real mobile innovation

2) Social networking and e-commerce are going to come together rapidly, making the online shopping experience much more like the offline experience

3) People will continue to build their brands online and when we think of “online branding” our first thought won’t be corporate entities, but rather people’s brands and how we get permission to interact with them, not the other way around

As always, please let me know what trends you think we’ll see over the next ten years, because most likely I’m way off ;)

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Tagged as: digital, e-commerce, linkedin, Mobile, trends

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  • mike

    #1 will transform things dramatically. looking forward to it.

  • karnacrawford

    I think Linked In is an under utilized mechanism for reaching and engaging the professional consumer segment. Marketers often get so caught up in the sex and sizzle of Facebook and My Space, that they often forget about how to push publishers, like Linked In, into a forward direction. If marketers tap Linked In for reaching and engaging the prfessional audience, I think we would be amazed by its power. Be it apps, new communities, virtual networking, or what about the power of a tweet up via Linked In.

    I think another underutilized opportunity facing similar overshadowing is the role of the blackberry and blackberry apps. Very similar situation. The apps for blackberry don't receive the same attention…so therefore they are not pushed to get better or to deliver more for less $$.

    If we as marketers make a concerted effort to tap into these capabilities for marketing to adult professionals (either as consumers or B2B), entities like Linked In and Blackberry have a tremendous unlocked potential in my mind.

    Big key…how do they leverage a point of difference that can move them out of the shadow of the others, and position themselves to win in an ownable space. If either is interested…I have ideas!

  • sherryheyl

    You are not way off, you are just on target, meaning these are current trends not future trends. (well future for some…).

    I just read this press release http://www.boston.com/news/local/breaking_news/… which is interesting in that it is a PR attempt to make the MBTA look good for providing information that is meant for public use in such a way that developers can now develop apps for the iPhone and Blackberries without charging the MBTA….I mean I can run with all kinds of opinions on this, but I will stick with the point that people want to use their phones to get information, information is being providing and developed to be delivers on the phones and US telecom will be pressured and I am sure provided incentives to comply.

    Social networking and e-commerce was born when Amazon.com opened their doors, I think we are seeing it in it's confused teenage years right now and soon it will be a mature contributor to society.

    The third trend you mention is key, because it is all about the paradigm shift in how we communicate. I hear a lot of communications professionals talking about this shift, but when you corner them on a project they are still thinking in terms of mass communications. Those who can shift with this trend will be the ones that will win in the end. (I am literally betting on that)

  • http://www.smallbiztwit.info StevenMoore

    #3 is happening with me already and growing. If I am looking for a CRM product with Social in it, I go to my network and the thought leaders in that space, company doesn't come into it until later almost as afterthought.
    Have companies approaching me thru SM to gain insight or feedback in the areas I am working in or mentions thru my social graph. Haven't had one ad for a business related product pull me in a long time.
    Nice post.. nice to see you're in town here. I will hit your linkedin….

    Hyperlocal Mobile Marketing coming because of confluence of your 3 points above…

  • http://kevinvogelsang.com Kevin Vogelsang

    It's only a matter of time for #1. The carriers' resistance can't last, and we'll soon enjoy a greater diversity of mobile products that will be very exciting.

    The current tools are difficult for implementing #2 effectively: the mainstream online social experience doesn't provide an environment that allows natural, unobtrusive interaction with brands. However, I believe the trend towards virtual worlds allows an avenue to change this, although not quite mainstream yet.

    With regard to #3, individual humans will always be much better at interacting with other individuals in the online social world than organizations. It's more natural and comfortable. People don't want to be sold to, particularly in social settings. Some companies have done a good job overcoming this with very friendly social media campaigns, but at the end of the day companies are pushing their own products, not the best product for the consumer.
    The best way to deal with the vast amount of information surrounding products and services is to go to someone who has expertise that you trust.

    I think these trends are spot on and will occur and be extremely significant for the digital space. The question is the time frame. Thinking back 5 years, for instance, Facebook was just getting started. It has sense nearly taken over the world. Technology development almost universally tends to accelerate, so we should probably look for even greater changes.

    With that in mind, I think the case for #1 is the strongest as far as the 10 year time frame. It isn't about phone technology, but extremely pervasive and available wireless data transfer that any 3rd party device can use. I think the other 2 will be defining for a shorter time frame, but will lead to/be a part of very significant trends, but maybe this is splitting hairs.

    This is an important question, and I'm actually planning to post some thoughts on the future of the web very soon.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Yep. Once that happens I can imagine everything changes. Of course we get a glimpse of the future looking at Asia and even Europe. Pretty cool stuff.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Spot on, too much emphasis on the sexy Facebook and iPhone ideas. Not enough (barely any) thoughts and strategy around the adult professionals. Is that because the folks spending money on emerging media are the B2C companies, or because agencies and marketing partners are only pitching those concepts to the B2C companies because we think they're the only ones with the appetite for it? My guess is a little bit of both. Self fulfilling prophesy?

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    I feel like we're not even approaching the teenage years of social commerce yet. I personally think there is almost zero innovation on this point, especially from Amazon whom I expect will take a giant leap into it by either forging a tight partnership with Facebook or attempting to buy and grow their own social community (will be a mistake if so).

    Love your last point and I know you're betting on that one ;)

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Right on Steven. And nice Posterous site, pretty much assuring me you know what you're talking about ;)

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Looking forward to reading your future blog on the topic.

    For me the intersection of social and e-commerce comes when people become the sales channels for products. If I see a movie and write a review on my blog, and 5 of my friends buy tickets by clicking through from my site, I get revenue from that. And my friends get a review they can trust vs. some random person's review. There's no reason I need to see an ad to tell me how great a car is. Chances are I know someone who is driving that car and THEY should be telling me if its a great purchase or not.

    That's the intersection I'm talking about and yes, we are very far from it.

  • http://kevinvogelsang.com Kevin Vogelsang

    That does make more sense. And I think that will be more possible as the number of content creators continues to expand and contextual analysis gets better.
    I had previously thought more about the role of social networks in providing the social e-commerce experience, and I am more skeptical of success from that angle.

  • bob_williams

    Jeff,

    I would also expect to see some innovation around electronic payments. Something similar to a PayPal like profile that houses multiple types of vehicles such as debit, credit, or deferred payments into a single number.

    -Bob

  • http://KevinVogelsang.com Kevin Vogelsang

    It's only a matter of time for #1. The carriers' resistance can't last, and we'll soon enjoy a greater diversity of mobile products that will be very exciting.

    The current tools are difficult for implementing #2 effectively: the mainstream online social experience doesn't provide an environment that allows natural, unobtrusive interaction with brands. However, I believe the trend towards virtual worlds allows an avenue to change this, although not quite mainstream yet.

    With regard to #3, individual humans will always be much better at interacting with other individuals in the online social world than organizations. It's more natural and comfortable. People don't want to be sold to, particularly in social settings. Some companies have done a good job overcoming this with very friendly social media campaigns, but at the end of the day companies are pushing their own products, not the best product for the consumer.
    The best way to deal with the vast amount of information surrounding products and services is to go to someone who has expertise that you trust.

    I think these trends are spot on and will occur and be extremely significant for the digital space. The question is the time frame. Thinking back 5 years, for instance, Facebook was just getting started. It has sense nearly taken over the world. Technology development almost universally tends to accelerate, so we should probably look for even greater changes.

    With that in mind, I think the case for #1 is the strongest as far as the 10 year time frame. It isn't about phone technology, but extremely pervasive and available wireless data transfer that any 3rd party device can use. I think the other 2 will be defining for a shorter time frame, but will lead to/be a part of very significant trends, but maybe this is splitting hairs.

    This is an important question, and I'm actually planning to post some thoughts on the future of the web very soon.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Yep. Once that happens I can imagine everything changes. Of course we get a glimpse of the future looking at Asia and even Europe. Pretty cool stuff.

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Spot on, too much emphasis on the sexy Facebook and iPhone ideas. Not enough (barely any) thoughts and strategy around the adult professionals. Is that because the folks spending money on emerging media are the B2C companies, or because agencies and marketing partners are only pitching those concepts to the B2C companies because we think they're the only ones with the appetite for it? My guess is a little bit of both. Self fulfilling prophesy?

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    I feel like we're not even approaching the teenage years of social commerce yet. I personally think there is almost zero innovation on this point, especially from Amazon whom I expect will take a giant leap into it by either forging a tight partnership with Facebook or attempting to buy and grow their own social community (will be a mistake if so).

    Love your last point and I know you're betting on that one ;)

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Right on Steven. And nice Posterous site, pretty much assuring me you know what you're talking about ;)

  • http://www.jeffhilimire.com Jeff Hilimire

    Looking forward to reading your future blog on the topic.

    For me the intersection of social and e-commerce comes when people become the sales channels for products. If I see a movie and write a review on my blog, and 5 of my friends buy tickets by clicking through from my site, I get revenue from that. And my friends get a review they can trust vs. some random person's review. There's no reason I need to see an ad to tell me how great a car is. Chances are I know someone who is driving that car and THEY should be telling me if its a great purchase or not.

    That's the intersection I'm talking about and yes, we are very far from it.

  • http://KevinVogelsang.com Kevin Vogelsang

    That does make more sense. And I think that will be more possible as the number of content creators continues to expand and contextual analysis gets better.
    I had previously thought more about the role of social networks in providing the social e-commerce experience, and I am more skeptical of success from that angle.

  • http://merchantstand.com Bob Williams

    Jeff,

    I would also expect to see some innovation around electronic payments. Something similar to a PayPal like profile that houses multiple types of vehicles such as debit, credit, or deferred payments into a single number.

    -Bob

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